Assessing the Choices for Elon Musk’s Twitter Takeover Push

So what are the probabilities that Elon Musk truly finally ends up proudly owning Twitter, and taking the platform non-public?

Effectively, it’s not wanting nice for Tesla Social ™ supporters, no less than on this type.

Following Musk’s $54.20 per share buyout offer, and his various and ongoing criticisms of Twitter management, analysts have been attempting to gauge the potential of a Twitter sale, with some non-public fairness companies now trying to get in on the motion, and both help rival bids for the corporate, or to associate with Musk in his buyout plans.

The fundamental premise is that Twitter is underachieving – whereas Meta has gone on to change into a world behemoth, raking in a whole lot of billions of {dollars} in income, Twitter, as soon as thought of a rival for Fb, has didn’t capitalize on its potential.

Which will or will not be true, although there’s some pretty robust proof to help the suggestion that Twitter’s mismanagement, and lack of clear route, has impeded its progress. From a enterprise perspective, that spells alternative – so whereas Elon is aiming to transform Twitter into the platform of free speech, by taking it non-public, and lowering its reliance on adverts (thus enabling it to detach itself from censorship considerations), non-public fairness companies scent money, and the chance to earn cash on the again of Musk’s takeover push.

Certainly, in keeping with stories, a number of PE companies, together with Thoma Bravo and Morgan Stanley, have contacted Twitter’s board about potential various avenues to sale.

As reported by the Wall Street Journal:

“Apollo, one of many world’s largest buyout companies, has held discussions about backing a potential deal for Twitter and will present Mr. Musk or one other bidder like private-equity agency Thoma Bravo LP with fairness or debt to help a proposal, the individuals stated.”

So whereas Twitter is anticipated to reject Musk’s takeover supply inside days (hypothesis is that Twitter might announce its decision as part of its Q1 earnings report on April 28th), Musk’s takeover bid has opened the door for others, which might see another, and extra enticing bid come up, which can nonetheless see Twitter bought into new possession.

On the similar time, Musk has continued to criticize Twitter administration, and the method which enables Twitter’s board to assess and decide on his bid, not Twitter shareholders, who Musk clearly suspects could also be extra enticed by his supply.

A method round this could possibly be a young supply, which Musk seemingly alluded to in a current tweet:

In that course of, Twitter shareholders would have the choice to tender their shares at his supply value, which might allow Musk to theoretically win the platform by way of shareholder approval, side-stepping the board.

It’s a extra complicated route, and would require majority shareholder help for Musk’s supply (which can also be, seemingly, not going occur). But it surely might present one other manner for Musk to take over the platform, and convert into his imaginative and prescient for a free speech haven, nonetheless which may look.

However on steadiness, the percentages can be towards that really occurring, and with Twitter seemingly set to additionally rebuff Musk’s supply, the most certainly consequence, no less than at this stage, is that Twitter will shrug off Musk’s takeover try, then attempt to transfer on within the wake of its newest controversy.

What Musk does then is unclear.

Will he attempt to begin his personal social media platform anyway (ala Trump)? Will he look to associate with any person else to place collectively an even bigger supply? Will he simply shut his Twitter account down, and transfer over to BeReal as a substitute?

I do suspect that Musk overrates his reputation and magnetism, and as such, I might see him leaping to a different platform, and anticipating his 84 million+ followers to return alongside for the subsequent chapter in his social media journey.

I doubt, nonetheless, that many would truly hassle.

However there’s another choice which might undoubtedly spark curiosity, even when it is likely to be completely unfeasible.

In current days, Twitter’s former CEO Jack Dorsey has been actively criticising his former company, and its board, in a collection of tweet replies.

Dorsey has as a lot expertise within the social media area as anybody, and he has robust views on the nice and unhealthy selections that Twitter has revamped time, whereas he’s additionally been a vocal supporter of Elon Musk and his future imaginative and prescient.

Possibly Musk and Dorsey ought to associate up on a completely new platform, just like Twitter, however with out the problems which have impeded the app’s progress?

To be clear, neither Dorsey nor Musk have instructed something alongside these traces, but it surely could possibly be one other avenue to contemplate, with the expertise and backing to probably give it a combating likelihood.

However proper now, as every thing stands, it doesn’t appear to be we’re going to see Musk taking on Twitter – although because the previous few weeks have proven, something remains to be potential on this area.