Elon Musk Raises Extra Questions About Twitter’s Method, Which Might Result in a Large Shake-Up

If nothing else, Elon Musk appears decided to shake issues up in his time as Twitter’s prime shareholder, and see what he could make occur, which might set the platform on a course for inner angst and person disruption as Twitter’s varied chief attempt to discover methods to placate the most recent member of their board.

However earlier than we get into Elon’s newest suggestions for the platform, it’s price establishing the place Twitter is at, and what its present targets are, to set a transparent understanding of the stakes.

Again in 2020, investment agency Elliott Administration purchased a 4% stake in Twitter – price round $1 billion on the time – with the intent of forcing Twitter to oust long-term CEO Jack Dorsey and substitute him with a extra business-focused chief, with a view to maximizing the app’s efficiency.

Elliott’s view was that Dorsey, who can also be the CEO of Sq., was unable to provide the corporate the eye it requires whereas working in each roles, so it purchased up shares in an effort to push him out. Ultimately, Twitter’s administration negotiated a peace deal of types with the Elliott group, which concerned Elliott and Silver Lake Partners both gaining a seat each on Twitter’s board, and noticed Twitter set bold new progress targets, which, presumably, additionally held important penalties for Dorsey and Co. if they may not be met.

These targets have been shared publicly in February last year:

• 315 million monetizable every day energetic customers by This autumn 2023 (Twitter at present has 217 mDAU and added 18m in whole in 2021)
• $7.5 billion annual income in 2023 (Twitter made $3.7b in 2020 and $5.1b in 2021)

As you possibly can see, these are some robust targets, and it could be that the stress positioned on the corporate because of Elliott’s push result in Dorsey’s choice to step down as CEO in November last year. Dorsey was changed by CTO Parag Argrawal within the function, and that would, in some respects, have given the Elliott consortium what it needs, which might have eased the stress on the corporate – however then, shortly after his appointment, Agrawal re-affirmed that Twitter would maintain these growth targets in Dorsey’s wake.

So Twitter already has a tricky highway forward of it, particularly on person progress. And into this comes Elon Musk, who bought up a 9% stake in Twitter late last week. That’s double the holding of Elliott Administration, and greater than Elliott and Silver Lake mixed, giving Musk a major voice within the firm. Twitter rapidly appointed Musk to its board, amid issues that he might look to buy-up much more shares, and take a controlling curiosity within the firm (Musk’s appointment to the board limits him from buying more than 14.9% of the company).

And now, we’re on this new actuality, the place Musk’s voice might maintain important sway within the firm’s future path.

And he’s wasted no time in making provocative claims and assertions forward of his first AMA with Twitter staff next week.

In a late night time flurry of tweets on Saturday night time, Musk famous that:

• Twitter’s hottest accounts, based mostly on follower numbers, are not very active, which prompted the query – ‘is Twitter dying?’

This comes after Musk shared a poll earlier in the week, through which he requested if Twitter customers need an edit button, which greater than 4.4 million people responded to (74% in favour). Twitter then famous that it’s, in actual fact, engaged on an edit button, and has been for a while, however Musk’s ballot as soon as once more underlined the general public stress that he might placed on the corporate, which he may also now use to back-up his views and opinions in Twitter’s board conferences.

Musk’s array of concepts might actually trigger some complications, and planning restructures inside Twitter HQ.

On the primary level, that Twitter’s hottest customers are usually not energetic – Twitter’s already engaged on this, by including in new incentives to get folks to tweet extra typically, together with Super Follows, tipping, newsletter integration, on-profile product displays and extra. These most likely received’t get the Justin Bieber’s of the world to be extra energetic, as a result of they’re received’t essentially be incentivized by these income applications, however they may get extra mid-level influencers extra energetic, which might make Twitter really feel extra ‘alive’ as soon as once more.

Perhaps. It’s exhausting to say how efficient issues like Tremendous Follows will truly be, however there’s probably not a great answer to get extra excessive profile customers partaking extra typically. If Musk has any concepts on that, little doubt Twitter’s administration can be eager to listen to them.

On the second, that Twitter ought to add an alternate checkmark for paying customers, this concept has been floated many instances, that Twitter might confirm customers that show their identification, not with a blue tick, however with one thing else, in an effort to legitimize their presence. Making this a paid possibility most likely isn’t one of the simplest ways to go (because it might incentivize scammers), however possibly there may very well be an argument for variable indicators based mostly on proof of identification, which might put extra onus on accounts to verify their particulars, thereby lessening the affect of pretend accounts and bots who wouldn’t have it.

Which results in Musk’s final level (I can’t say a lot on the concept Twitter’s house base ought to be re-used for one more objective), that there are too many bots and rip-off profiles within the app, which impacts the person expertise. That is probably true – in accordance with earlier estimates, around 15% of active Twitter profiles are likely bots, whereas bot accounts have additionally contributed up to 60% of the tweets around politically divisive topics at instances.

That’s a major downside – however on the identical time, would eradicating them be in Twitter’s finest pursuits, from a metrics standpoint?

As famous, Twitter’s wanting so as to add nearly 100m energetic customers within the subsequent yr and a bit. Eradicating 15% of its energetic person base – equal to round 32m profiles – would clearly affect that technique, making it nearly unattainable to succeed in.

However possibly it will be higher for Twitter, general, to assault this extra vigorously? Perhaps it will be higher to take away bots totally, even when it reduces the person depend – however then once more, we don’t know the penalties that Twitter’s administration may very well be going through if it fails to satisfy these benchmarks.

Might Musk persuade Twitter’s board to vary path on this, if Twitter have been to fight bot profiles?

That then results in questions on figuring out and eradicating bots definitively, which might undoubtedly result in some false positives, and certain some discount in engagement, at the least within the brief time period.

Such an strategy might work, within the longer-term view, however would Twitter’s different shareholders have the persistence required to re-structure this component?

These are the sorts of questions that Twitter’s going to should weigh within the Elon Musk period, and whereas they may effectively result in systematic enhancements, they may additionally trigger some main complications for Twitter’s administration within the upcoming quarterly studies.

After which there’s the censorship component, and Musk’s potential affect on Twitter’s stance on moderation and eradicating accounts that break the principles.

Musk just lately questioned Twitter’s adherence to ‘free speech ideas’ which he famous are elementary to democracy.

Musk was additionally a vocal critic of Twitter’s banning of former US President Donald Trump early final yr.

Curiously, the founding father of Elliott Administration, billionaire investor Paul Singer, can also be a “Republican mega-donor”, who, whereas he was initially opposed Trump’s insurance policies and strategy, ultimately got here round to backing the previous chief.

So now you’ve got at the least two components in Twitter’s board room who, at a look, would seem to again a extra ‘free speech’ strategy to moderation on the app.

That might spark huge conflicts, particularly as social platforms now appear to be usually in settlement that quicker motion is required on probably dangerous actions, in an effort to quash them earlier than they acquire any traction.

Platforms took too long to address QAnon, permitting it to unfold, and infect extra folks by way of their networks. They haven’t made the identical mistake on anti-Ukraine propaganda.

Will Musk’s appointment be a step again on this component, and permit extra harmful speech to take maintain by way of tweet?

Actually, proper wingers are happy with Musk’s board ascension, and with the pending failure of Trump’s ‘Truth Social’ app, they’ll be eager to see if Musk can reinstate a few of their previous freedoms, at the least in a perceptual sense, throughout the app.

It doesn’t matter what, Twitter actually appears to be like set for a shake-up – however whether or not the tip end result is definitely a greater expertise, we’ll have to attend and see.